Football Proof AI on a rain-lit football pitch with calibrated probability graphics

The public model ledger

Football predictions you can audit before and after kick-off

Every forecast gets a timestamp, a model version, and a public result.

See current board Inspect the record

9 active forecasts on the boardDemo · FPAI-LGBM 0.9.3

0124h+ earlyPublished before kick-off

02Locked recordTimestamp and model version

03Auto-settledNo edited win rate

Chronological match desk

Current AI football predictions, grouped by kick-off

Live matches appear first. The remaining slate is grouped by WAT match date and ordered by kick-off, while every card keeps both WAT and EAT visible. Open a fixture for its full probability split.

Showing 10 of 10 matches.

Live now

2 matches

Tusker

Home

1–1 · HT19:45 WAT21:45 EAT

Kenya Police

Away

Model call

home

Confidence47%

Home47%

Draw30%

Away23%

What moved the model

Tusker rate 0.42 expected points higher at home.
Kenya Police's last-five form has improved, narrowing the home edge.
Head-to-head history is neutral after recency weighting.

Lazio

Home

0–1 · 68′19:45 WAT21:45 EAT

Atalanta

Away

Model call

away

Confidence37%

Home33%

Draw30%

Away37%

Saturday, 11 July 2026 · WAT schedule

2 matches

Arsenal

Home

vs15:00 WAT17:00 EAT

Aston Villa

Away

Model call

home

Confidence54%

Home54%

Draw26%

Away20%

Chelsea

Home

vs17:30 WAT19:30 EAT

Newcastle United

Away

Model call

home

Confidence44%

Home44%

Draw28%

Away28%

Sunday, 12 July 2026 · WAT schedule

4 matches

Gor Mahia

Home

vs14:00 WAT16:00 EAT

AFC Leopards

Away

Model call

home

Confidence41%

Home41%

Draw31%

Away28%

Enyimba

Home

vs16:00 WAT18:00 EAT

Remo Stars

Away

Model call

home

Confidence49%

Home49%

Draw31%

Away20%

Bologna

Home

vs16:00 WAT18:00 EAT

Torino

Away

Model call

home

Confidence46%

Home46%

Draw32%

Away22%

Real Sociedad

Home

vs18:30 WAT20:30 EAT

Villarreal

Away

Model call

home

Confidence38%

Home38%

Draw31%

Away31%

Monday, 13 July 2026 · WAT schedule

1 match

Barcelona

Home

vs20:00 WAT22:00 EAT

Sevilla

Away

Model call

home

Confidence65%

Home65%

Draw21%

Away14%

Recently completed

1 match

Rivers United

Home

2–016:00 WAT18:00 EAT

Shooting Stars

Away

Model call

home

Confidence52%

Home52%

Draw29%

Away19%

Return after the whistle

Recently settled—hits and misses stay visible

See the complete demo record

HitArsenal v West Ham United2–0Locked call home · 61%HitEverton v Newcastle United1–2Locked call away · 42%HitBandari v Kakamega Homeboyz1–0Locked call home · 45%HitBarcelona v Real Betis3–1Locked call home · 67%

Proof, not promises

The accuracy page is the product.

Hit rate alone can hide bad probability estimates. Football Proof AI publishes the Brier score, league splits, calibration buckets, and every historical forecast behind the headline number.

Open the accuracy ledger

Hit rate: 54.2%; 13 of 24 settled picks
Brier score: 0.188; Lower is better
Hits / misses: 13 / 11; 54.2% observed
Calibration gap: 14.8 pts; Weighted across buckets

Probability check

When we say 60%, how often does it happen?

Predicted vs actual

Model bucket	Predicted	Actual	Difference	Matches
Below 40%	37%	20%	-17 pts	5
40–49%	45%	71%	+26 pts	7
50–59%	55%	50%	-5 pts	8
60%+	65%	75%	+11 pts	4

What the model sees

Fourteen active football signals. One reserved.

Recent points, home and away form, goals for and against, Elo, head-to-head history, and rest days are joined only from information available before the match. Isotonic calibration turns raw scores into probabilities that should mean what they say.

01 As-of joins prevent future-data leakage
02 Walk-forward tests mimic real publication
03 Every model update receives a new version

Read the full model method Learn how to read a probability

Grounded AI explainer

Kito — reads the record, never rewrites it

“The model owns the probability. I can explain the locked record, its uncertainty and its limits. I cannot rewrite a single number.”

Open the daily briefing Explore the probability lab

Football predictions you can audit before and after kick-off

Current AI football predictions, grouped by kick-off

Live now

Tusker vs Kenya Police prediction

Lazio vs Atalanta prediction

Saturday, 11 July 2026 · WAT schedule

Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction

Chelsea vs Newcastle United prediction

Sunday, 12 July 2026 · WAT schedule

Gor Mahia vs AFC Leopards prediction

Enyimba vs Remo Stars prediction

Bologna vs Torino prediction

Real Sociedad vs Villarreal prediction

Monday, 13 July 2026 · WAT schedule

Barcelona vs Sevilla prediction

Recently completed

Rivers United vs Shooting Stars prediction

Recently settled—hits and misses stay visible

The accuracy page is the product.

The numbers, including the misses.

When we say 60%, how often does it happen?

Fourteen active football signals. One reserved.

Kito — reads the record, never rewrites it